QUANTUM SUPREMACY AND THE CRISIS OF KINETIC EQUIVALENCE: REASSESSING “ARMED ATTACK” UNDER THE UN CHARTER

Abdikhakimov, Islombek

International Conference on Law, Governance and Social Transformation | Volume 2, Issue 1 (2026) | Pages 1-7

QUANTUM SUPREMACY AND THE CRISIS OF KINETIC EQUIVALENCE: REASSESSING “ARMED ATTACK” UNDER THE UN CHARTER

Islombek Abdikhakimov ^*

Head of Artificial Intelligence and Legal Tech Laboratory

Abstract

The imminent arrival of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) threatens to render the traditional "kinetic equivalence" framework for cyber warfare obsolete. International law, specifically the jus ad bellum regime enshrined in the UN Charter, has historically relied on physical damage and injury as the primary thresholds for defining an "armed attack" under Article 51. This article argues that the unique capabilities of quantum computing—specifically the ability to retroactively decrypt sensitive state data and instantaneously neutralize critical infrastructure without physical destruction—expose a dangerous lacuna in the current legal definition of the use of force. By analyzing the "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL) strategy through the lens of state responsibility and the law of armed conflict, this study posits that quantum-enabled operations constitute a form of "systemic violence" that may cripple a state's functionality without firing a shot. The article concludes that the international community must move beyond the Schmitt analysis of "scale and effects" to a functionalist interpretation of Article 51, where the irreversible compromise of sovereign cryptographic integrity is recognized as a casus belli.

Keywords

Kinetic Equivalence Armed Attack UN Charter Quantum Supremacy HNDL Cyber Warfare Article 51 Critical Infrastructure

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Published January 28, 2026

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